The overnight tape has flipped hard into risk-on after President Trump announced a two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Futures are up across the board, crude is cratering, and global equities are staging their biggest single-session relief rally in over a year. The question today is not whether the pain trade was short crude and long equities — it was — but whether this is a durable turn or a geopolitical sugar high.
1. Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 Futures: ~6,844, +2.8% — Risk-on