THE BIG PICTURE
After five consecutive weeks of losses — the longest slide since 2022 — the market finally caught a bid. The S&P 500 posted its first weekly gain since the Iran conflict began, rising 3.4% to close Thursday at 6,583. The Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow added 3.0%. The VIX retreated sharply from last week’s 31+ to settle at 23.87, still elevated but off the crisis highs.
The catalyst was a powerful Tuesday rally — the Nasdaq’s best single session since May, up 3.83% — triggered by a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump told aides he would consider ending the war even without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Quarter-end rebalancing flows added fuel. But the week was not without whiplash: Thursday opened down 600+ points on the Dow after Trump vowed Wednesday night to strike Iran “extremely hard.” Markets recovered by the close on reports that Iran was drafting a shipping protocol with Oman.